Introduction

Public understanding of science is critical in times of crisis. The following analysis was conducted to examine the trajectory of COVID-19 in the South Florida counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. For phased reopening, The White House has set guidelines for local municipalities in their “Opening Up American Again” report. In the report, it is highly suggested that:

  1. Local areas show a downward trajectory in the number of positive cases as a percent of total tests over a two-week period, and
  2. Local hospitals have capacity to handle all patients without crisis care.

The analysis begins by looking at the number of new positive cases each day and the number of total tests performed each day. The figures are presented together because as there is more testing, there are likely to be more positive test results. Therefore, the proportion of positive cases is also calculated. Given a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive cases is the key metric to be used when looking at epidemic trajectory. It is recommended that this proportion not exceed 5%.

Finally, to ensure hospitals can meet demand without crisis care, the COVID-19 positive hospitalization census, COVID-19 positive ICU census, and COVID-19 positive ventilation census is plotted over time. Census refers to the number of COVID-19 positive patients in the hospital, ICU, and on ventilators, respectively, on a given day.

For Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, this document shows the

Miami-Dade County

COVID-19 Testing Data

Full Data

This is a table of the most recent data we have available. We include data sources at the end of the document.
Date Positive Negative PropPositive PositivePer1k
20-Mar 23 146 13.6094675 136.094675
21-Mar 53 419 11.2288136 112.288136
22-Mar 83 452 15.5140187 155.140187
23-Mar 44 241 15.4385965 154.385965
24-Mar 90 491 15.4905336 154.905336
25-Mar 154 1079 12.4898621 124.898621
26-Mar 178 749 19.2017260 192.017260
27-Mar 205 1066 16.1290323 161.290323
28-Mar 270 917 22.7464195 227.464195
29-Mar 362 1248 22.4844720 224.844720
30-Mar 278 963 22.4012893 224.012893
31-Mar 461 1613 22.2275796 222.275796
1-Apr 272 1569 14.7745790 147.745790
2-Apr 544 2413 18.3970240 183.970240
3-Apr 625 1878 24.9700360 249.700360
4-Apr 531 2521 17.3984273 173.984273
5-Apr 311 1260 19.7963081 197.963081
6-Apr 556 2309 19.4066318 194.066318
7-Apr 493 1990 19.8550141 198.550141
8-Apr 488 1113 30.4809494 304.809494
9-Apr 435 2636 14.1647672 141.647672
10-Apr 542 2505 17.7879882 177.879882
11-Apr 563 2732 17.0864947 170.864947
12-Apr 364 1614 18.4024267 184.024267
13-Apr 477 2267 17.3833819 173.833819
14-Apr 364 1663 17.9575728 179.575728
15-Apr 438 2392 15.4770318 154.770318
16-Apr 536 2767 16.2276718 162.276718
17-Apr 519 2901 15.1754386 151.754386
18-Apr 296 1509 16.3988920 163.988920
19-Apr 465 2690 14.7385103 147.385103
20-Apr 413 3232 11.3305898 113.305898
21-Apr 577 4230 12.0033285 120.033285
22-Apr 465 2701 14.6873026 146.873026
23-Apr 619 3647 14.5100797 145.100797
24-Apr 552 2852 16.2162162 162.162162
25-Apr 564 4136 12.0000000 120.000000
26-Apr 384 2576 12.9729730 129.729730
27-Apr 446 2789 13.7867079 137.867079
28-Apr 213 1333 13.7774903 137.774903
29-Apr 309 1704 15.3502235 153.502236
30-Apr 333 3724 8.2080355 82.080355
1-May 250 3616 6.4666322 64.666322
2-May 144 2183 6.1882252 61.882252
3-May 295 2896 9.2447509 92.447509
4-May 151 3900 3.7274747 37.274747
5-May 165 2231 6.8864775 68.864775
6-May 153 2296 6.2474479 62.474479
7-May 95 2091 4.3458371 43.458371
8-May 165 2615 5.9352518 59.352518
9-May 225 2208 9.2478422 92.478422
10-May 159 2546 5.8780037 58.780037
11-May 164 3420 4.5758929 45.758929
12-May 153 1660 8.4390513 84.390513
13-May 274 2214 11.0128617 110.128617
14-May 213 1726 10.9850438 109.850438
15-May 177 1927 8.4125475 84.125475
16-May 544 3047 15.1489836 151.489836
17-May 164 4218 3.7425833 37.425833
18-May 123 5310 2.2639426 22.639426
19-May 66 13671 0.4804542 4.804543
20-May 343 7304 4.4854191 44.854191
21-May 190 2649 6.6924974 66.924974
22-May 158 3143 4.7864284 47.864284
23-May 123 2491 4.7054323 47.054323
24-May 219 5545 3.7994448 37.994448
25-May 113 2819 3.8540246 38.540246
26-May 100 1786 5.3022269 53.022269
27-May 143 2693 5.0423131 50.423131
28-May 259 5673 4.3661497 43.661497
29-May 165 2458 6.2905071 62.905071
30-May 202 4115 4.6791754 46.791753
31-May 138 2921 4.5112782 45.112782
1-Jun 83 1042 7.3777778 73.777778
2-Jun 250 4639 5.1135201 51.135202
3-Jun 274 4952 5.2430157 52.430157
4-Jun 217 3909 5.2593311 52.593311
5-Jun 233 3111 6.9677033 69.677033
6-Jun 328 8882 3.5613464 35.613464
7-Jun 226 2674 7.7931034 77.931034
8-Jun 231 4255 5.1493535 51.493535
9-Jun 247 3249 7.0652174 70.652174
10-Jun 295 4861 5.7214895 57.214895
11-Jun 255 3967 6.0397916 60.397916
12-Jun 560 4866 10.3206782 103.206782
13-Jun 523 9250 5.3514786 53.514786
14-Jun 263 2732 8.7813022 87.813022
15-Jun 523 5252 9.0562771 90.562771
16-Jun 493 3352 12.8218466 128.218466
17-Jun 561 4452 11.1909037 111.909036
18-Jun 549 4444 10.9953936 109.953936
19-Jun 615 4700 11.5710254 115.710254
20-Jun 903 5927 13.2210835 132.210835
21-Jun 511 2627 16.2842575 162.842575
22-Jun 672 3059 18.0112570 180.112570
23-Jun 945 3892 19.5369030 195.369030
24-Jun 889 7909 10.1045692 101.045692
25-Jun 1513 9146 14.1945774 141.945774
26-Jun 1362 8345 14.0311116 140.311116
27-Jun 2160 9961 17.8203119 178.203119
28-Jun 1531 6742 18.5059833 185.059833
29-Jun 1592 7403 17.6987215 176.987215
30-Jun 1142 5131 18.2050056 182.050056


Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has doubled from about 2,000 in early April to over 4,500 in mid-June. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 404 new additional tests each day, per day in Miami-Dade County. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

There was a general decrease in the number of new positive test results from early April until around May 11th. Afterwards, this trend flattened out and then increased. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 91 new additional positive cases each day, per day in Miami-Dade County.

Proportion of Positive Cases within Past Two Weeks

During the 14-day period from 16 June to 30 June, there was a increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 cases reported in Miami-Dade County. Over this period, there was an average increase of 0.5 percentage points per day for new positive cases. This increase was even greater during the last week. Given a flat or increasing number of tests performed, the proportion of positive tests obtained is the key metric for examining COVID-19 trajectory. The percentage of positive test results obtained has exceeded the 5% positive threshold recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) for reopening.

Proportion of Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

Overall, the proportion of positive test results out of all tests decreased significantly from over 20% in April to the proportion of about 5% at the end of May. This is function of test availability and the population being tested. Overall, since the county reopened, the proportion of positive tests is now increasing significantly over time.

COVID-19 Hospitalization Data

Full Data

The data below is COVID-19 hospital census data for Miami-Dade County for all dates with available data since April 2.These columns are: the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 (Hospitalised), the number of patients in intensive care with COVID-19 (ICU), the number of patients in intensive care with COVID-19 who are also on ventilators (Ventilated), the number of patients positive for COVID-19 that were admitted the previous day (AdmitPrevDay), the number of patients recovered from COVID-19 that were discharged the previous day (DischPrevDay), and the net admission of patients positive for COVID-19 the previous day (DeltaAdmit; a negative value means more recovered patients were discharged than sick patients admitted).

Date County Hospitalized ICU Ventilated AdmitPrevDay DischPrevDay DeltaAdmit
2020-04-02 MIAMI-DADE 320 130 116 NA NA NA
2020-04-03 MIAMI-DADE 346 133 116 111 33 78
2020-04-04 MIAMI-DADE 416 133 112 59 37 22
2020-04-05 MIAMI-DADE 533 188 146 108 19 89
2020-04-06 MIAMI-DADE 516 178 151 89 21 68
2020-04-07 MIAMI-DADE 591 199 167 76 28 48
2020-04-08 MIAMI-DADE 636 215 166 107 32 75
2020-04-09 MIAMI-DADE 634 232 170 99 61 38
2020-04-10 MIAMI-DADE 681 245 172 79 37 42
2020-04-10 MIAMI-DADE 676 251 183 73 36 37
2020-04-11 MIAMI-DADE 671 238 177 99 64 35
2020-04-12 MIAMI-DADE 672 243 192 80 59 21
2020-04-12 MIAMI-DADE 714 245 183 60 61 -1
2020-04-13 MIAMI-DADE 653 247 184 74 47 27
2020-04-13 MIAMI-DADE 695 251 184 80 48 32
2020-04-14 MIAMI-DADE 653 204 146 69 41 28
2020-04-14 MIAMI-DADE 712 249 174 86 66 20
2020-04-15 MIAMI-DADE 693 234 169 84 76 8
2020-04-16 MIAMI-DADE 714 223 176 77 84 -7
2020-04-16 MIAMI-DADE 736 226 176 74 111 -37
2020-04-17 MIAMI-DADE 706 213 172 83 107 -24
2020-04-17 MIAMI-DADE 797 285 170 74 88 -14
2020-04-18 MIAMI-DADE 697 221 170 101 137 -36
2020-04-18 MIAMI-DADE 697 219 170 93 138 -45
2020-04-19 MIAMI-DADE 730 223 170 71 105 -34
2020-04-20 MIAMI-DADE 727 210 167 58 64 -6
2020-04-21 MIAMI-DADE 759 205 155 92 81 11
2020-04-22 MIAMI-DADE 743 196 148 72 88 -16
2020-04-22 MIAMI-DADE 722 194 139 71 121 -50
2020-04-23 MIAMI-DADE 706 186 129 91 62 29
2020-04-23 MIAMI-DADE 728 192 139 82 65 17
2020-04-24 MIAMI-DADE 694 173 125 86 66 20
2020-04-25 MIAMI-DADE 699 182 133 85 50 35
2020-04-25 MIAMI-DADE 705 178 133 84 51 33
2020-04-26 MIAMI-DADE 752 176 115 95 34 61
2020-04-26 MIAMI-DADE 747 177 116 79 32 47
2020-04-27 MIAMI-DADE 728 163 114 52 23 29
2020-04-27 MIAMI-DADE 725 162 115 50 26 24
2020-04-28 MIAMI-DADE 763 204 128 53 43 10
2020-04-28 MIAMI-DADE 776 203 127 71 52 19
2020-04-29 MIAMI-DADE 746 204 119 74 48 26
2020-04-29 MIAMI-DADE 747 196 120 75 44 31
2020-04-30 MIAMI-DADE 735 167 108 64 61 3
2020-04-30 MIAMI-DADE 735 168 108 58 63 -5
2020-05-01 MIAMI-DADE 733 177 110 69 76 -7
2020-05-01 MIAMI-DADE 724 171 110 79 77 2
2020-05-02 MIAMI-DADE 715 168 107 86 72 14
2020-05-03 MIAMI-DADE 707 181 103 68 134 -66
2020-05-03 MIAMI-DADE 697 179 102 56 132 -76
2020-05-04 MIAMI-DADE 702 170 105 46 29 17
2020-05-04 MIAMI-DADE 692 167 103 47 33 14
2020-05-05 MIAMI-DADE 674 157 84 68 76 -8
2020-05-05 MIAMI-DADE 677 156 84 67 74 -7
2020-05-06 MIAMI-DADE 660 142 80 80 68 12
2020-05-06 MIAMI-DADE 658 142 80 84 72 12
2020-05-07 MIAMI-DADE 661 137 75 71 65 6
2020-05-07 MIAMI-DADE 658 136 75 71 65 6
2020-05-08 MIAMI-DADE 643 130 78 68 64 4
2020-05-09 MIAMI-DADE 817 128 79 67 185 -118
2020-05-09 MIAMI-DADE 649 129 79 71 180 -109
2020-05-10 MIAMI-DADE 662 133 77 81 35 46
2020-05-10 MIAMI-DADE 667 127 77 64 31 33
2020-05-11 MIAMI-DADE 695 121 74 58 23 35
2020-05-11 MIAMI-DADE 695 121 74 58 23 35
2020-05-12 MIAMI-DADE 698 123 82 74 49 25
2020-05-12 MIAMI-DADE 634 111 73 76 50 26
2020-05-13 MIAMI-DADE 679 112 68 50 59 -9
2020-05-13 MIAMI-DADE 716 119 66 54 55 -1
2020-05-14 MIAMI-DADE 694 118 62 54 74 -20
2020-05-14 MIAMI-DADE 694 117 61 47 76 -29
2020-05-15 MIAMI-DADE 697 110 59 67 76 -9
2020-05-15 MIAMI-DADE 697 111 59 60 64 -4
2020-05-16 MIAMI-DADE 714 119 61 62 81 -19
2020-05-16 MIAMI-DADE 747 125 62 74 83 -9
2020-05-18 MIAMI-DADE 778 128 82 23 14 9
2020-05-19 MIAMI-DADE 742 122 50 52 44 8
2020-05-23 MIAMI-DADE 772 114 59 70 68 2
2020-05-26 MIAMI-DADE 792 106 67 67 110 -43
2020-05-27 MIAMI-DADE 768 106 61 42 46 -4
2020-05-28 MIAMI-DADE 740 103 56 59 98 -39
2020-05-29 MIAMI-DADE 729 92 55 48 74 -26
2020-05-31 MIAMI-DADE 716 96 53 71 49 22
2020-06-01 MIAMI-DADE 663 95 75 39 45 -6
2020-06-02 MIAMI-DADE 714 96 54 61 59 2
2020-06-03 MIAMI-DADE 699 98 56 58 109 -51
2020-06-04 MIAMI-DADE 643 98 NA 60 81 -21
2020-06-05 MIAMI-DADE 717 114 56 82 86 -4
2020-06-08 MIAMI-DADE 723 108 60 56 22 34
2020-06-10 MIAMI-DADE 724 93 58 60 54 6
2020-06-11 MIAMI-DADE 691 98 58 65 67 -2
2020-06-12 MIAMI-DADE 686 99 59 54 70 -16
2020-06-12 MIAMI-DADE 681 103 59 58 69 -11
2020-06-15 MIAMI-DADE 738 126 66 95 45 50
2020-06-16 MIAMI-DADE 754 135 64 99 76 23
2020-06-17 MIAMI-DADE 761 131 67 101 87 14
2020-06-18 MIAMI-DADE 761 138 64 101 249 -148
2020-06-19 MIAMI-DADE 758 131 71 115 150 -35
2020-06-20 MIAMI-DADE 794 131 74 103 92 11
2020-06-22 MIAMI-DADE 900 165 77 110 42 68
2020-06-23 MIAMI-DADE 932 163 78 154 94 60
2020-06-24 MIAMI-DADE 981 185 83 164 121 43
2020-06-25 MIAMI-DADE 955 182 87 160 140 20
2020-06-26 MIAMI-DADE 1006 195 88 187 142 45
2020-06-27 MIAMI-DADE 1004 206 91 160 136 24
2020-06-27 MIAMI-DADE 1004 206 90 162 130 32
2020-06-30 MIAMI-DADE 1219 282 105 174 120 54


Hospital COVID-19 Census Trajectory

We now show a census plot of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and those in ICU on ventilators (shown on a log scale) for Miami-Dade County. Overall, since mid-April, the number of COVID-19 positive patients in Miami-Dade County hospitals has remained constant at around 700 people in hospitals. The COVID-19 ICU census has decreased from its reported peak of 285 on April 17th to around 100 as of June 6th. Overall, the number of COVID-19 patients on ventilators has decreased significantly from its highest point of 192 ventilated on April 22nd to around 60 on June 6th. However, the observed decreasing trends for ICU census and ventilation census have reversed over the past week and begun to increase for both ICU census and ventilation census, respectively. Additionally, county hospitalizations have begun to increase as well.

We also show the proportion of patients hospitalized which are in ICU and the proportion of those in ICU which are ventilated.

The above figure shows that, over time, the proportion of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County first decreased until the end of May, then increased slightly. Additionally, fewer of COVID-19 positive patients who were in ICU were put on ventilators. Taken together, these two trends suggest that the standard of care for COVID-19 positive patients has adjusted to new research and also that more of the patients who have been hospitalized with COVID-19 have less severe underlying health conditions.

Broward County

COVID-19 Testing Data

Full Data

Date Positive Negative PropPositive PositivePer1k
20-Mar 32 749 4.0973111 40.973111
21-Mar 36 277 11.5015974 115.015974
22-Mar 53 351 13.1188119 131.188119
23-Mar 46 245 15.8075601 158.075601
24-Mar 49 238 17.0731707 170.731707
25-Mar 100 1413 6.6093853 66.093853
26-Mar 93 859 9.7689076 97.689076
27-Mar 126 1044 10.7692308 107.692308
28-Mar 189 1591 10.6179775 106.179775
29-Mar 18 229 7.2874494 72.874494
30-Mar 299 2553 10.4838710 104.838710
31-Mar 82 672 10.8753316 108.753316
1-Apr 13 193 6.3106796 63.106796
2-Apr 249 935 21.0304054 210.304054
3-Apr 84 1271 6.1992620 61.992620
4-Apr 227 1028 18.0876494 180.876494
5-Apr 94 1204 7.2419106 72.419106
6-Apr 181 1029 14.9586777 149.586777
7-Apr 163 1052 13.4156379 134.156379
9-Apr 122 1262 8.8150289 88.150289
10-Apr 199 944 17.4103237 174.103237
11-Apr 155 805 16.1458333 161.458333
12-Apr 150 1008 12.9533679 129.533679
13-Apr 299 1574 15.9636946 159.636946
14-Apr 117 789 12.9139073 129.139073
15-Apr 186 1135 14.0802422 140.802422
16-Apr 254 2340 9.7918273 97.918273
17-Apr 183 1208 13.1560029 131.560029
18-Apr 217 1213 15.1748252 151.748252
19-Apr 223 1362 14.0694006 140.694006
20-Apr 181 1060 14.5850121 145.850121
21-Apr 191 1193 13.8005780 138.005780
22-Apr 166 1456 10.2342787 102.342787
23-Apr 312 2851 9.8640531 98.640531
24-Apr 247 1537 13.8452915 138.452915
25-Apr NA NA NA NA
26-Apr NA NA NA NA
27-Apr NA NA NA NA
28-Apr NA NA NA NA
29-Apr 66 787 7.7373974 77.373974
30-Apr 183 3640 4.7868166 47.868166
1-May 107 1839 5.4984584 54.984584
2-May 60 1122 5.0761421 50.761421
3-May 66 785 7.7555817 77.555817
4-May 108 2090 4.9135578 49.135578
5-May 63 1805 3.3725910 33.725910
6-May 80 1458 5.2015605 52.015605
7-May 47 5356 0.8698871 8.698871
8-May 49 1470 3.2258065 32.258065
9-May 89 654 11.9784657 119.784657
10-May 22 2180 0.9990917 9.990917
11-May 68 1744 3.7527594 37.527594
12-May 61 1332 4.3790380 43.790380
13-May 52 2155 2.3561396 23.561396
14-May 69 1150 5.6603774 56.603774
15-May 41 499 7.5925926 75.925926
16-May 81 1344 5.6842105 56.842105
17-May 78 1956 3.8348083 38.348083
18-May 47 2476 1.8628617 18.628617
19-May 45 6470 0.6907137 6.907137
20-May 109 4259 2.4954212 24.954213
21-May 64 3411 1.8417266 18.417266
22-May 72 3400 2.0737327 20.737327
23-May 41 1168 3.3912324 33.912324
24-May 78 3557 2.1458047 21.458047
25-May 39 1608 2.3679417 23.679417
26-May 36 994 3.4951456 34.951456
27-May 38 1960 1.9019019 19.019019
28-May 101 4316 2.2866199 22.866199
29-May 82 1451 5.3489889 53.489889
30-May 70 2698 2.5289017 25.289017
31-May 72 3060 2.2988506 22.988506
1-Jun 51 762 6.2730627 62.730627
2-Jun 83 2190 3.6515618 36.515618
3-Jun 101 3850 2.5563149 25.563149
4-Jun 104 4207 2.4124333 24.124333
5-Jun 97 2830 3.3139734 33.139733
6-Jun 146 4808 2.9471134 29.471134
7-Jun 115 2425 4.5275591 45.275591
8-Jun 135 3257 3.9799528 39.799528
9-Jun 108 1538 6.5613609 65.613609
10-Jun 151 2434 5.8413926 58.413927
11-Jun 226 4334 4.9561404 49.561403
12-Jun 206 3358 5.7800224 57.800224
13-Jun 108 3921 2.6805659 26.805659
14-Jun 129 2423 5.0548589 50.548589
15-Jun 391 4817 7.5076805 75.076805
16-Jun 285 2611 9.8411602 98.411602
17-Jun 275 3473 7.3372465 73.372465
18-Jun 270 2766 8.8932806 88.932806
19-Jun 341 3200 9.6300480 96.300480
20-Jun 507 4785 9.5804989 95.804989
21-Jun 138 2084 6.2106211 62.106211
22-Jun 463 4061 10.2343059 102.343059
23-Jun 457 3711 10.9644914 109.644914
24-Jun 387 5609 6.4543029 64.543029
25-Jun 730 5673 11.4009058 114.009058
26-Jun 726 6248 10.4100946 104.100946
27-Jun 584 4758 10.9322351 109.322351
28-Jun NA NA NA NA


Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 1000 in early April to over 4000 in mid-June. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 239 new additional tests each day, per day in Broward County. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

There was a general decrease in the number of new positive test results from early April until around May 11th. Afterwards, this trend flattened out and then increased. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 34 new additional positive cases each day, per day in Broward County.

Proportion of Positive Cases within Past Two Weeks

During the 14-day period from 16 June to 30 June, there was a increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 cases reported in Miami-Dade County. Over this period, there was an average increase of 0.3 percentage points per day for new positive cases. This increase was even greater during the last week.

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

Proportion of Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

Overall, the proportion of positive test results out of all tests decreased significantly from over 15% in April to the proportion of about 4% at the end of May. This is function of test availability and the population being tested. Overall, since the county reopened, the proportion of positive tests is now increasing significantly over time.

COVID-19 Hospitalization Data

Full Data

Date County Hospitalized ICU Ventilated AdmitPrevDay DischPrevDay DeltaAdmit
2020-04-02 BROWARD 204 71 56 NA NA NA
2020-04-03 BROWARD 250 87 70 143 49 94
2020-04-04 BROWARD 298 98 80 41 18 23
2020-04-05 BROWARD 341 96 92 83 66 17
2020-04-06 BROWARD 389 122 110 71 72 -1
2020-04-07 BROWARD 413 128 113 65 81 -16
2020-04-08 BROWARD 391 135 119 62 108 -46
2020-04-09 BROWARD 376 135 106 55 54 1
2020-04-10 BROWARD 374 136 114 83 84 -1
2020-04-10 BROWARD 380 148 120 84 72 12
2020-04-11 BROWARD 370 140 115 71 80 -9
2020-04-12 BROWARD 400 145 120 66 60 6
2020-04-12 BROWARD 398 152 121 77 64 13
2020-04-13 BROWARD 326 128 99 72 59 13
2020-04-13 BROWARD 406 146 116 84 62 22
2020-04-14 BROWARD 400 144 116 89 60 29
2020-04-14 BROWARD 398 140 108 107 65 42
2020-04-15 BROWARD 387 144 112 142 136 6
2020-04-16 BROWARD 396 147 114 136 111 25
2020-04-16 BROWARD 378 139 106 125 55 70
2020-04-17 BROWARD 376 135 106 122 63 59
2020-04-17 BROWARD 365 135 104 70 44 26
2020-04-18 BROWARD 310 107 82 68 118 -50
2020-04-18 BROWARD 381 125 102 64 48 16
2020-04-19 BROWARD 378 127 100 53 43 10
2020-04-20 BROWARD 371 123 105 60 39 21
2020-04-21 BROWARD 330 107 88 90 66 24
2020-04-22 BROWARD 360 116 97 62 57 5
2020-04-22 BROWARD 356 117 95 52 40 12
2020-04-23 BROWARD 364 119 82 47 33 14
2020-04-23 BROWARD 363 121 84 38 40 -2
2020-04-24 BROWARD 372 117 102 46 38 8
2020-04-25 BROWARD 347 116 103 67 57 10
2020-04-25 BROWARD 343 112 85 77 65 12
2020-04-26 BROWARD 341 110 84 74 50 24
2020-04-26 BROWARD 343 113 84 63 48 15
2020-04-27 BROWARD 335 105 82 35 39 -4
2020-04-27 BROWARD 336 107 80 35 40 -5
2020-04-28 BROWARD 324 99 74 69 59 10
2020-04-28 BROWARD 324 99 74 69 59 10
2020-04-29 BROWARD 319 101 77 59 55 4
2020-04-29 BROWARD 319 101 77 59 55 4
2020-04-30 BROWARD 311 92 77 47 50 -3
2020-04-30 BROWARD 312 93 77 47 50 -3
2020-05-01 BROWARD 309 91 69 65 62 3
2020-05-01 BROWARD 310 91 69 65 62 3
2020-05-02 BROWARD 308 91 72 55 62 -7
2020-05-03 BROWARD 301 89 67 31 30 1
2020-05-03 BROWARD 305 89 69 47 40 7
2020-05-04 BROWARD 271 74 53 34 43 -9
2020-05-04 BROWARD 270 75 53 33 45 -12
2020-05-05 BROWARD 254 71 50 33 44 -11
2020-05-05 BROWARD 259 75 50 33 44 -11
2020-05-06 BROWARD 249 65 52 44 31 13
2020-05-06 BROWARD 249 65 52 50 31 19
2020-05-07 BROWARD 246 61 44 43 21 22
2020-05-07 BROWARD 246 61 44 43 21 22
2020-05-08 BROWARD 247 68 42 40 20 20
2020-05-09 BROWARD 241 62 41 36 25 11
2020-05-09 BROWARD 241 63 42 34 21 13
2020-05-10 BROWARD 253 63 41 41 18 23
2020-05-10 BROWARD 253 63 41 41 18 23
2020-05-11 BROWARD 283 59 39 50 6 44
2020-05-11 BROWARD 283 59 39 50 6 44
2020-05-12 BROWARD 279 61 41 30 20 10
2020-05-12 BROWARD 279 61 41 30 20 10
2020-05-13 BROWARD 246 50 24 41 16 25
2020-05-13 BROWARD 286 57 34 42 15 27
2020-05-14 BROWARD 300 57 36 41 26 15
2020-05-14 BROWARD 300 57 36 44 26 18
2020-05-15 BROWARD 281 45 35 25 19 6
2020-05-15 BROWARD 281 45 35 25 19 6
2020-05-16 BROWARD 277 41 36 22 25 -3
2020-05-16 BROWARD 270 43 38 23 25 -2
2020-05-18 BROWARD 270 46 42 22 17 5
2020-05-19 BROWARD 277 48 40 28 17 11
2020-05-23 BROWARD 228 48 41 23 17 6
2020-05-26 BROWARD 230 47 37 25 18 7
2020-05-27 BROWARD 228 49 37 27 22 5
2020-05-28 BROWARD 213 54 41 18 25 -7
2020-05-29 BROWARD 208 50 45 21 20 1
2020-05-31 BROWARD 187 49 34 20 16 4
2020-06-01 BROWARD 198 51 34 12 23 -11
2020-06-02 BROWARD 195 53 33 32 33 -1
2020-06-03 BROWARD 187 50 32 30 39 -9
2020-06-04 BROWARD 167 52 32 20 26 -6
2020-06-05 BROWARD 182 50 31 23 16 7
2020-06-08 BROWARD 185 50 29 26 12 14
2020-06-10 BROWARD 169 46 29 26 23 3
2020-06-11 BROWARD 204 50 30 31 23 8
2020-06-12 BROWARD 215 48 31 31 25 6
2020-06-12 BROWARD 214 48 31 28 25 3
2020-06-15 BROWARD 222 53 27 30 16 14
2020-06-16 BROWARD 235 61 29 39 29 10
2020-06-17 BROWARD 243 54 27 40 36 4
2020-06-18 BROWARD 257 56 26 44 32 12
2020-06-19 BROWARD 289 68 26 53 35 18
2020-06-20 BROWARD 297 71 30 51 24 27
2020-06-23 BROWARD 302 47 25 49 33 16
2020-06-24 BROWARD 391 68 34 66 59 7
2020-06-25 BROWARD 429 74 26 79 33 46
2020-06-26 BROWARD 451 92 43 73 45 28
2020-06-27 BROWARD 472 97 38 82 51 31
2020-06-27 BROWARD 472 97 38 82 51 31
2020-06-30 BROWARD 602 113 49 105 65 40


Hospital COVID-19 Census Trajectory

We now show a census plot of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and those in ICU on ventilators (shown on a log scale) for Broward County. Overall, in Broward County, hospitalizations and ICU census trended downwards until approximately the first week of June. Subsequently, these trends reversed and now trend upwards. The trend for ventilation census in Broward County has consistently trended downwards. This trend has not reversed. The COVID-19 ICU census had decreased from its reported peak of 147 on April 16th to a minimum of 41 on May 16th; currently, it has increased back to 113. The observed decreasing trends for ICU census has reversed over the past month and began to increase. Overall, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICU on ventilators has decreased significantly from its highest point of 121 ventilated on April 12th to a minimum of 23 on May 13th; currently, there are 49 patients on ventilators in ICU. Additionally, county hospitalizations have begun to increase over the past two weeks.

We also show the proportion of patients hospitalized which are in ICU and the proportion of those in ICU which are ventilated.

Palm Beach County

COVID-19 Testing Data

Full Data

Date Positive Negative PropPositive PositivePer1k
20-Mar 13 229 5.371901 53.71901
21-Mar 14 84 14.285714 142.85714
22-Mar 16 54 22.857143 228.57143
23-Mar 17 135 11.184211 111.84211
24-Mar 15 87 14.705882 147.05882
25-Mar 37 401 8.447489 84.47489
26-Mar 33 180 15.492958 154.92958
27-Mar 67 211 24.100719 241.00719
28-Mar 77 231 25.000000 250.00000
29-Mar 15 31 32.608696 326.08696
30-Mar 130 539 19.431988 194.31988
31-Mar 88 414 17.529881 175.29880
1-Apr 16 113 12.403101 124.03101
2-Apr 170 364 31.835206 318.35206
3-Apr 44 526 7.719298 77.19298
4-Apr 127 446 22.164049 221.64049
5-Apr 92 455 16.819013 168.19013
6-Apr 69 276 20.000000 200.00000
7-Apr 90 466 16.187050 161.87050
8-Apr 47 135 25.824176 258.24176
9-Apr 127 586 17.812062 178.12062
10-Apr 98 462 17.500000 175.00000
11-Apr 220 1987 9.968283 99.68283
12-Apr 63 279 18.421053 184.21053
13-Apr 81 352 18.706698 187.06697
14-Apr 71 275 20.520231 205.20231
15-Apr 99 316 23.855422 238.55422
16-Apr 165 1467 10.110294 101.10294
17-Apr 192 2332 7.606973 76.06973
18-Apr 61 349 14.878049 148.78049
19-Apr 52 312 14.285714 142.85714
20-Apr 112 1418 7.320261 73.20261
21-Apr 144 1970 6.811731 68.11731
22-Apr 111 1373 7.479784 74.79784
23-Apr 167 996 14.359415 143.59415
24-Apr 65 456 12.476008 124.76008
25-Apr NA NA NA NA
26-Apr NA NA NA NA
27-Apr NA NA NA NA
28-Apr NA NA NA NA
29-Apr 57 637 8.213256 82.13256
30-Apr 74 1192 5.845182 58.45182
1-May 39 886 4.216216 42.16216
2-May 51 657 7.203390 72.03390
3-May 172 2312 6.924316 69.24316
4-May 82 2250 3.516295 35.16295
5-May 100 1651 5.711022 57.11022
6-May 86 1076 7.401033 74.01033
7-May 35 1162 2.923977 29.23977
8-May 171 1117 13.276397 132.76398
9-May 78 897 8.000000 80.00000
10-May 22 1052 2.048417 20.48417
11-May 124 1198 9.379728 93.79728
12-May 143 2322 5.801217 58.01217
13-May 120 1418 7.802341 78.02341
14-May 112 1174 8.709176 87.09176
15-May 29 325 8.192090 81.92090
16-May 109 1316 7.649123 76.49123
17-May 113 1326 7.852676 78.52675
18-May 57 1906 2.903719 29.03719
19-May 67 4512 1.463202 14.63202
20-May 189 3207 5.565371 55.65371
21-May 100 1264 7.331378 73.31378
22-May 80 1553 4.898959 48.98959
23-May 45 884 4.843918 48.43918
24-May 148 2866 4.910418 49.10418
25-May 81 1347 5.672269 56.72269
26-May 36 1000 3.474903 34.74903
27-May 82 1352 5.718271 57.18271
28-May 227 3455 6.165128 61.65128
29-May 91 817 10.022026 100.22026
30-May 150 1900 7.317073 73.17073
31-May 143 2236 6.010929 60.10929
1-Jun 79 782 9.175377 91.75377
2-Jun 248 2101 10.557684 105.57684
3-Jun 153 3347 4.371429 43.71429
4-Jun 154 2966 4.935897 49.35897
5-Jun 173 2246 7.151716 71.51716
6-Jun 244 4541 5.099268 50.99269
7-Jun 114 1562 6.801909 68.01909
8-Jun 203 2676 7.051059 70.51059
9-Jun 158 1486 9.610706 96.10706
10-Jun 189 1597 10.582307 105.82307
11-Jun 197 2148 8.400853 84.00853
12-Jun 360 3142 10.279840 102.79840
13-Jun 375 4189 8.216477 82.16477
14-Jun 175 1812 8.807247 88.07247
15-Jun 260 2428 9.672619 96.72619
16-Jun 225 1740 11.450382 114.50382
17-Jun 344 2222 13.406080 134.06080
18-Jun 230 2773 7.659008 76.59008
19-Jun 365 2260 13.904762 139.04762
20-Jun 336 3118 9.727852 97.27852
21-Jun 168 2611 6.045340 60.45340
22-Jun 282 2380 10.593539 105.93539
23-Jun 352 1587 18.153688 181.53687
24-Jun 310 3216 8.791832 87.91832
25-Jun 646 5382 10.716656 107.16656
26-Jun 435 3691 10.542899 105.42899
27-Jun 462 4922 8.580981 85.80981
28-Jun NA NA NA NA


Total COVID-19 Tests by Day

The average number of COVID-19 tests performed each day has increased from about 500 in early April to roughly 3000 in mid-June. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 214 new additional tests each day, per day in Palm Beach County. This data is presented on a log scale.

Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

There was a general decrease in the number of new positive test results from early April until around May 11th. Afterwards, this trend flattened out and then increased. Over the past two weeks, there has been an average increase of 21 new additional positive cases each day, per day in Palm Beach County.

Proportion of Positive Cases within Past Two Weeks

During the 14-day period from 16 June to 30 June, there was a slight increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 cases reported in Miami-Dade County. Over this period, there was an average increase of 0 percentage points per day for new positive cases. This increase was even greater during the last week.

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).
## Warning: Removed 1 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

Proportion of Positive COVID-19 Tests by Day

Overall, the proportion of positive test results out of all tests decreased significantly from over 15% in April to the proportion of about 6% at the end of May. This is function of test availability and the population being tested. Overall, since the county reopened, the proportion of positive tests is now increasing over time.

COVID-19 Hospitalization Data

Full Data

Date County Hospitalized ICU Ventilated AdmitPrevDay DischPrevDay DeltaAdmit
2020-04-02 PALM BEACH 150 78 38 NA NA NA
2020-04-03 PALM BEACH 171 69 60 31 12 19
2020-04-04 PALM BEACH 170 77 75 50 47 3
2020-04-05 PALM BEACH 180 83 73 49 15 34
2020-04-06 PALM BEACH 138 64 58 49 48 1
2020-04-07 PALM BEACH 199 84 63 64 39 25
2020-04-08 PALM BEACH 158 68 51 47 28 19
2020-04-09 PALM BEACH 212 86 66 93 39 54
2020-04-10 PALM BEACH 184 90 54 46 46 0
2020-04-10 PALM BEACH 200 99 55 48 40 8
2020-04-11 PALM BEACH 196 94 58 60 22 38
2020-04-12 PALM BEACH 229 103 60 36 25 11
2020-04-12 PALM BEACH 228 103 63 38 26 12
2020-04-13 PALM BEACH 239 90 54 64 38 26
2020-04-13 PALM BEACH 242 91 57 66 39 27
2020-04-14 PALM BEACH 241 89 56 65 44 21
2020-04-14 PALM BEACH 204 73 48 63 49 14
2020-04-15 PALM BEACH 223 85 51 74 38 36
2020-04-16 PALM BEACH 241 89 53 74 34 40
2020-04-16 PALM BEACH 250 92 54 72 38 34
2020-04-17 PALM BEACH 236 87 52 74 26 48
2020-04-17 PALM BEACH 239 88 54 60 33 27
2020-04-18 PALM BEACH 240 91 53 62 33 29
2020-04-18 PALM BEACH 237 89 54 61 33 28
2020-04-19 PALM BEACH 238 94 62 55 25 30
2020-04-20 PALM BEACH 245 91 56 46 25 21
2020-04-21 PALM BEACH 236 86 47 41 40 1
2020-04-22 PALM BEACH 232 88 52 46 35 11
2020-04-22 PALM BEACH 226 84 52 47 31 16
2020-04-23 PALM BEACH 232 85 50 42 34 8
2020-04-23 PALM BEACH 229 84 49 38 30 8
2020-04-24 PALM BEACH 223 73 50 40 32 8
2020-04-25 PALM BEACH 223 73 43 39 23 16
2020-04-25 PALM BEACH 221 71 43 38 25 13
2020-04-26 PALM BEACH 209 65 40 50 24 26
2020-04-26 PALM BEACH 213 68 41 45 18 27
2020-04-27 PALM BEACH 222 67 43 26 22 4
2020-04-27 PALM BEACH 223 69 44 25 22 3
2020-04-28 PALM BEACH 229 75 45 30 27 3
2020-04-28 PALM BEACH 230 75 40 29 25 4
2020-04-29 PALM BEACH 236 72 43 33 23 10
2020-04-29 PALM BEACH 232 73 44 31 22 9
2020-04-30 PALM BEACH 232 73 44 41 32 9
2020-04-30 PALM BEACH 234 74 43 45 36 9
2020-05-01 PALM BEACH 235 76 44 49 32 17
2020-05-01 PALM BEACH 236 77 44 43 32 11
2020-05-02 PALM BEACH 241 76 50 34 34 0
2020-05-03 PALM BEACH 246 72 47 35 18 17
2020-05-03 PALM BEACH 242 71 46 33 17 16
2020-05-04 PALM BEACH 228 71 52 34 39 -5
2020-05-04 PALM BEACH 228 71 52 34 39 -5
2020-05-05 PALM BEACH 230 75 47 48 33 15
2020-05-05 PALM BEACH 230 75 47 48 33 15
2020-05-06 PALM BEACH 233 67 39 45 34 11
2020-05-06 PALM BEACH 233 67 39 45 33 12
2020-05-07 PALM BEACH 237 69 41 45 28 17
2020-05-07 PALM BEACH 236 69 40 44 27 17
2020-05-08 PALM BEACH 224 65 40 36 46 -10
2020-05-09 PALM BEACH 224 66 43 31 32 -1
2020-05-09 PALM BEACH 224 66 43 31 32 -1
2020-05-10 PALM BEACH 226 69 41 41 32 9
2020-05-10 PALM BEACH 227 70 41 37 33 4
2020-05-11 PALM BEACH 218 64 38 41 28 13
2020-05-11 PALM BEACH 218 64 38 41 28 13
2020-05-12 PALM BEACH 222 67 50 41 29 12
2020-05-12 PALM BEACH 222 68 36 41 29 12
2020-05-13 PALM BEACH 216 64 37 47 35 12
2020-05-13 PALM BEACH 219 64 38 40 29 11
2020-05-14 PALM BEACH 242 75 37 48 36 12
2020-05-14 PALM BEACH 242 75 37 48 36 12
2020-05-15 PALM BEACH 236 71 37 39 30 9
2020-05-15 PALM BEACH 241 73 36 43 43 0
2020-05-16 PALM BEACH 250 70 38 48 34 14
2020-05-16 PALM BEACH 247 71 41 50 29 21
2020-05-18 PALM BEACH 251 66 33 34 25 9
2020-05-19 PALM BEACH 231 66 34 44 30 14
2020-05-23 PALM BEACH 235 55 35 38 43 -5
2020-05-26 PALM BEACH 246 66 36 36 25 11
2020-05-27 PALM BEACH 246 66 37 49 34 15
2020-05-28 PALM BEACH 234 55 34 46 62 -16
2020-05-29 PALM BEACH 238 63 35 34 37 -3
2020-05-31 PALM BEACH 241 68 40 28 26 2
2020-06-01 PALM BEACH 251 69 43 34 37 -3
2020-06-02 PALM BEACH 237 64 36 39 42 -3
2020-06-03 PALM BEACH 271 90 64 40 18 22
2020-06-04 PALM BEACH 254 78 41 45 33 12
2020-06-05 PALM BEACH 253 75 48 41 43 -2
2020-06-08 PALM BEACH 307 87 48 53 17 36
2020-06-10 PALM BEACH 293 84 55 40 41 -1
2020-06-11 PALM BEACH 275 84 52 49 42 7
2020-06-12 PALM BEACH 289 90 51 42 28 14
2020-06-12 PALM BEACH 287 88 50 42 25 17
2020-06-15 PALM BEACH 291 74 54 47 25 22
2020-06-16 PALM BEACH 303 78 44 68 45 23
2020-06-17 PALM BEACH 329 95 50 49 53 -4
2020-06-18 PALM BEACH 348 99 49 58 38 20
2020-06-19 PALM BEACH 369 90 49 58 36 22
2020-06-20 PALM BEACH 376 92 48 68 34 34
2020-06-22 PALM BEACH 371 77 46 51 35 16
2020-06-23 PALM BEACH 402 82 51 68 43 25
2020-06-24 PALM BEACH 394 84 69 57 59 -2
2020-06-25 PALM BEACH 384 76 46 70 50 20
2020-06-26 PALM BEACH 403 80 46 74 38 36
2020-06-27 PALM BEACH 420 77 45 94 57 37
2020-06-27 PALM BEACH 420 77 45 94 57 37
2020-06-30 PALM BEACH 493 118 56 95 57 38


Hospital COVID-19 Census Trajectory

We now show a census plot of hospitalizations, patients in ICU, and those in ICU on ventilators (shown on a log scale) for Palm Beach County. Overall, in Palm Beach County, trends for hospitalization census, ICU census and ventilation census decreased from April to mid May before reversing. Subsequently, we see an increase in hospitalization census, ICU census, and ventilation census for Palm Beach County. The COVID-19 ICU census has decreased from its reported peak of 103 on April 12th to 55 on May 23rd; currently there are 118 COVID-19 patients in ICU. Overall, the number of COVID-19 patients on ventilators has decreased significantly from its highest point of 75 ventilated on April 4th to to 33 on May 18th; currently there are 56 COVID-19 patients in ICU who are on ventilators. However, the observed flat trend for hospitalization, ICU, and ventilated census have reversed over the past month and began to increase.

We also show the proportion of patients hospitalized which are in ICU and the proportion of those in ICU which are ventilated.

Conclusion

During the past two weeks, the number of positive COVID-19 tests has increased by an average of 91, 34, and 21 each day for Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties, respectively. Additionally, there has been a substantial increase in the proportion of positive COVID-19 tests obtained within the past two weeks. Furthermore, hospitalization census, ICU census, and ventilation census for Miami-Dade County have all begun to increase over approximately the last two weeks. Taken together, this evidence points to increased community spread of COVID-19 in Miami-Dade County and represents a significant concern for the area. For Broward County, hospitalization census and ICU census have increased since the beginning of June, however, ventilation census has not increased during this time. Finally, for Palm Beach County, hospitalization census, ICU census and ventilation census have all increased consistently since approximately mid May.

Data Sources

Data sources are as follows: